Besides Oversupply, the rating agency highlights risks such as execution challenges and China dependency.
23 Mar 2025 | 4309 Views | By Ketan Thakkar
In India’s push towards electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries are the critical fuel of the future. They’re powerful, essential — and, for now, mostly imported. While the government pushes for localisation and companies pledge over Rs 75,000 crore to build battery cell factories, a recent report by ICRA warns of ...
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In India’s push towards electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries are the critical fuel of the future. They’re powerful, essential — and, for now, mostly imported. While the government pushes for localisation and companies pledge over Rs 75,000 crore to build battery cell factories, a recent report by ICRA warns of significant execution challenges on the road ahead.
High-risk projects, slow demand ramp-up, global oversupply, and a heavy reliance on China all threaten to sap the energy from India’s battery cell dreams. “Li-ion battery cell projects in India fall under the high-risk category,” the report states — a red flag for policymakers and investors alike.
The headline numbers are eye-catching: over 150 GWh of battery capacity planned by 2030, more than Rs 75,000 crore in investment, and the backing of an Rs 18,100 crore Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC). But ICRA urges caution. Behind the tall targets lies a troubling lack of visibility of implementation.
Many of these projects are still in the conceptual or early stages of construction. The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) payouts, designed to catalyse this industry, are tethered to actual output and sales — milestones few players have achieved so far. “Total committed Li-ion battery capacities exceed 150 GWh; however, most are in the early stages, and actual progress remains to be seen,” ICRA observes.
Among the major players, Reliance New Energy has committed to establishing 20 GWh of battery cell capacity in Gujarat, with plans for further expansion. Ola Electric aims to establish a 20 GWh facility in Tamil Nadu under the PLI scheme, with the first set of local cells in the process of getting integrated into its scooters. In the second round, ACME Cleantech was awarded 10 GWh under the PLI, bringing the cumulative awarded capacity to 50 GWh to date.
These projects represent significant investment and intent — but most are yet to show meaningful volume offtake. States have joined the push, offering capital subsidies, land allotments, and concessional power rates. But without speed and scale in execution, India risks falling short of its localisation goals
China’s grip on the global battery supply chain is near total. From refining critical minerals to dominating cell manufacturing and even controlling equipment supply, China is at the heart of the world’s lithium-ion battery ecosystem.
India, on the other hand, is only beginning to assemble its first few pieces. Most battery cells are still imported, while domestic activity is limited to low-margin battery pack assembly. “Li-ion cells, which account for 70-75% of battery pack costs, are imported,” says ICRA. “Only low value-add battery pack assembly is done in India.”
This dependence creates vulnerabilities. Price volatility, trade restrictions, or geopolitical tensions with China could divert Indian projects off course. “Overdependence on China and minimal local availability of minerals and processing capacities creates geopolitical and economic risks for India,” the report cautions.
The second major problem is timing. While India gears up to create supply, global players are already dealing with a glut. In 2023, global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity exceeded demand by more than double the amount. That imbalance has driven battery pack prices down — sharply. “The 20% reduction in battery pack prices in CY2024 is primarily due to unfavorable demand-supply dynamics,” ICRA explains.
The pressure is likely to persist in the near term as manufacturers rush to meet the demand for actual EV adoption, the credit rating agency points out. For Indian companies, this oversupply could render domestic production financially unviable — unless they can compete on cost, scale, or both. Consequently, over 90% of the requirement is still being imported.
Meanwhile, India is charting a different path when it comes to battery chemistry, ICRA says. Unlike their global peers, who prefer high-energy-density Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) chemistries, Indian OEMs are leaning heavily on Lithium Ferrous Phosphate (LFP) batteries as thy are more affordable, have a longer cycle life, and perform better in hot, humid climates. “The proportion of LFP batteries in India is higher than that of its global counterparts,” notes ICRA, attributing this to “lower costs than NMC, a longer lifecycle, and better temperature and climate tolerance.”
But this shift brings its risks. Technology must be future-proof, and battery manufacturers must ensure they don’t get locked into chemistries that may not dominate globally in the long run, it warns.
Building a battery factory is one thing. Creating a battery ecosystem is quite a different matter, the report points out. Part of the complexity is the challenge of sourcing raw materials. The global supply of critical minerals is concentrated in a few geographies, making it difficult for new entrants like India to establish reliable and cost-effective supply chains.
Geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and limited domestic reserves further exacerbate the problem. Without long-term agreements, diversified procurement strategies, and investments in overseas mining assets, India’s battery cell makers remain at the mercy of volatile international markets, it notes.
Battery cell production requires secure access to critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel — most of which are not mined or processed in India. Equipment for gigafactories must also be imported, primarily from China, Germany, and South Korea. “Battery cell manufacturing is a highly technologically complex process,” ICRA points out. The suitability of technology for Indian climatic conditions is also essential.
Add to that the lack of skilled talent, inadequate testing and certification infrastructure, and an absence of battery recycling facilities — and the risks become even more pronounced. “There is also reliance on imports for battery manufacturing equipment,” says ICRA. “Skilled labour with adequate knowledge of battery cell manufacturing and supply chain needs to be developed.”
However, the agency does not doubt the strong demand potential – projecting India’s EV battery demand will grow from around 11–13 GWh now to 60–65 GWh by FY2030. With 150 GWh of capacity in the pipeline, there may be a significant under utilisation or glut, it warns. As such, battery makers will have to aggressively rely on exports and compete with Chinese cell makers who have a significant cost advantage or rely on Battery as a Storage for other applications.
Given the slower than expected demand, the pace of this transition remains slower than initially anticipated, the report notes. It identifies multiple factors — including high upfront costs, limited charging infrastructure, range anxiety, and inconsistent state-level EV policies — as weighing on consumer adoption. Furthermore, vehicle makers are adopting a measured rollout plans for its EVs, often focusing on limited geographies or fleets rather than nationwide coverage.
Adding to the uncertainty is the growing focus on hybrid vehicles. Some manufacturers are prioritizing strong hybrid offerings as a transitional solution both globally and in India. Fully electric models are facing a potential distraction. The report notes that, with lower-than-anticipated volumes for EVs, numerous vehicle manufacturers will have to rely on hybrid and expensive diesel models to meet the upcoming CAFÉ 3 norms. Hybrids do not require large battery packs or charging infrastructure, making them more feasible for immediate roll-out, especially in a price-sensitive market.
This diversion of focus could slow down the demand ramp-up for large-scale lithium-ion cell manufacturing in India. That said, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for EV adoption in India. Several new electric vehicle launches across segments — from affordable city-focused two-wheelers and compact cars to premium SUVs and electric buses — are expected to hit the market.
This includes models like the Tata Sierra EV, Mahindra XUV.e8, BE 6, Hyundai Creta EV, Maruti Suzuki eVX, Kia Carens EV, Skoda Enyaq iV, and BYD Seal. In the two-wheeler space, models such as the Ather Rizta, Ola Roadster, and TVS iQube ST are slated for launch.
This wave of new product introductions, combined with better design, longer range, and improved pricing, is likely to boost consumer confidence and catalyse demand, the agency predicts.
With OEMs such as Tata Motors, Mahindra, Hyundai, and even Maruti Suzuki accelerating their electric vehicle (EV) portfolios, industry stakeholders are hopeful that a more substantial adoption curve will emerge in 2024. Many reckon that the volumes in 2025 could almost double to 2 lakh units and the share of EVs in the overall market may move to 3-4% of the overall passenger vehicle.
As for long term, ICRA’s projection are rather optimistic -
Yet this ramp-up depends on multiple factors — from EV affordability and charging infrastructure to policy stability and consumer trust. Until then, battery makers will face uncertainty about offtake.
The report identifies Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for ACC batteries as a key pillar in India’s localisation strategy. With an outlay of Rs 18,100 crore and a subsidy cap of Rs 2,000 per kWh, it aims to accelerate 50 GWh of domestic manufacturing.
However, despite the ambitious design and substantial financial outlay, the PLI scheme has struggled to gain meaningful traction. The disbursement of incentives is contingent upon the commencement of commercial production and meeting defined value-added milestones — criteria that most players have yet to fulfill. Delays in project execution, lengthy regulatory clearances, and a lack of backward integration have muted actual progress. In contrast, the initial enthusiasm surrounding the scheme led to high-profile allocations, including players like Reliance and Ola Electric. However, the absence of any large-scale operational capacity two years on signals the need for a course correction.
“The PLI scheme aims at building EV battery capabilities for the next decade,” ICRA says.
The benefits extend beyond gigafactories — the scheme was expected to boost domestic value addition, attract MSME suppliers, and potentially position India as an export hub – but it seems more like a pipedream given the slow off take. And this impact will be realised only once production begins. So far, the actual disbursement of incentives has been slow, and many companies are still in the pre-production phase.
India’s battery ambitions are big, necessary — and fraught with risk, the report notes. ICRA’s outlook paints a challenging picture: India has the potential to emerge as a major player in EV batteries, but that will require not just investment but also alignment across policy, technology, supply chains, and skills.
To succeed, India must build not just factories but an entire ecosystem — one that can power the clean mobility future with resilience and scale. Low volume offtake is the primary challenge the industry needs to address on priority to offer much-needed initial charge for cell localization. From import dependencies and project execution challenges to global competition and technological uncertainty, the road ahead may be anything but smooth, ICRA notes.